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TI

Traeger, Inc. (COOK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY25 was broadly in line: revenue fell 1.1% YoY to $143.3M; GAAP net loss was $0.8M (-$0.01/sh); Adjusted EPS was $0.05; Adjusted EBITDA was $22.5M. Grills grew 12.8% to $86.7M, offset by Accessories (-26.6%) on MEATER weakness; gross margin compressed 170 bps to 41.5% on mix and higher promo funding, partly offset by lower warranty and supply chain savings .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue beat ($143.3M vs $140.6M*) and Adjusted EPS outpaced Primary EPS consensus ($0.05 vs $0.041*). S&P “EBITDA” showed an “actual” of $17.7M* vs a $22.4M* consensus, noting definition differences vs company Adjusted EBITDA of $22.5M .
  • Management withdrew FY25 guidance due to tariff uncertainty and fragile consumer sentiment; mitigation underway includes supply-chain savings, strategic pricing, cost reductions, and inventory pullbacks .
  • Demand signals remained constructive into Q2 (healthy grill sell-through; Costco roadshows up ~50% YoY; new Woodridge launch outperforming expectations), a potential near-term trading catalyst if tariff clarity and pricing pass-through hold .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Grills growth and product momentum: “our grills business grew 13% … benefited from increased consumer demand and the launch of our new Woodridge series” .
    • Healthy sell-through and field activation: “sell-through of Grills remains healthy into the second quarter… materially increase the number of selling events and product demos” .
    • Cost discipline and mitigation: supply chain negotiations, diversification away from China by 2026, strategic pricing, and SG&A controls to protect EBITDA and cash flow .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Gross margin compression: 41.5% vs 43.2% LY, driven by grill mix, increased marketplace investment, and MEATER, partly offset by lower warranty and supply chain improvements .
    • Accessories/MEATER pressure: Accessories revenue -26.6% YoY on MEATER declines and lapping a Q1’24 European partnership load-in; strategy shifting mix to wholesale and reducing costs .
    • Guidance withdrawn and macro/tariff overhang: FY25 guidance suspended amid a rapidly evolving tariff regime (e.g., grills produced in China face ~45% cumulative tariffs), creating forecast visibility challenges .

Financial Results

Key P&L (oldest → newest; includes consensus for current quarter)

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 (Actual)Q1 2025 (Consensus)*
Revenue ($M)$144.9 $168.6 $143.3 $140.6*
Gross Margin (%)43.2% 40.9% 41.5% N/A
GAAP EPS ($)-0.04 -0.05 -0.01 N/A
Adjusted EPS ($)0.04 0.01 0.05 0.041*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$24.4 $18.4 $22.5 N/A
S&P EBITDA ($M)N/AN/A$17.7*$22.4*

Notes: Company “Adjusted EBITDA” differs from S&P Global’s “EBITDA” definition; use care when comparing to consensus .
Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus/actuals and may reflect differing definitions; see Estimates Context below. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment and Geography

  • Revenue by Category
SegmentQ1 2024 YoYQ1 2025 ($M)YoY %Commentary
Grills$86.7 +12.8% Woodridge launch; positive sell-through
Consumables$30.3 -6.1% Lower pellet and food consumables units; higher pellet ASP
Accessories$26.3 -26.6% MEATER decline; lapping Q1’24 EU partnership load-in
  • Geography (YoY)
RegionQ1 2025 YoY
North America+5.6%
Rest of World-46.5%

Balance Sheet/Other KPIs (quarter-end unless noted)

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$15.0 $12.0
Inventory ($M)$107.4 $127.2
Line of Credit Draw ($M)$5.0 $25.0
Total Liquidity ($M)$168 (management)
Net Debt ($M)$416 (incl. $25M receivables facility)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (3/6/25)Current (5/1/25)Change
Total RevenueFY 2025$595–$615M Withdrawn Withdrawn
Gross MarginFY 202542.2%–42.8% Withdrawn Withdrawn
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$75–$85M Withdrawn Withdrawn

Management cited rapidly evolving trade policy and fragile consumer sentiment for suspending guidance, with updates to be provided as visibility improves .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Tariffs/MacroQ3: Raised FY24 outlook; margin expansion from logistics . Q4: FY25 guidance explicitly did not include potential tariff impacts .Detailed tariff exposure (grills China ~45% cumulative; Vietnam ~25%); price increases; cost reductions; supply-chain diversification; guidance withdrawn .Deteriorating visibility; aggressive mitigation.
Product performanceQ3: Grills +32.5% YoY; strategic pricing . Q4: Woodridge load-in; strong grill demand .Woodridge launched in Jan; outperforming with 4.8-star reviews; Flatrock 2 Zone griddle introduced in April .Improving innovation cadence; positive consumer reception.
MEATER/accessoriesQ3: Accessories down on MEATER . Q4: Accessories -24.1% on MEATER .Accessories -26.6% YoY; shifting MEATER mix to wholesale; cost actions; lapping EU partnership load-in from Q1’24 .Still pressured; repositioning in progress.
Supply chainQ3/Q4: Margin gains from freight/logistics .Negotiating supplier savings; diversify out of China; 2026 target for materially lower China production mix .Ongoing structural mitigation.
Retail/sell-throughQ3: Strong grill sell-through drove replenishment . Q4: Healthy retail demand .Positive grill sell-through continues into Q2; Costco roadshows +~50% YoY; more demos planned .Stable-to-improving field execution.
Marketing mixShift to sales activation (in-store, demos); less top-of-funnel; marketplace investments (some through COGS) .Rebalanced toward near-term ROI.
Regional trendsQ3: NA up 10.4%, RoW down 40.1% . Q4: NA up 11.2%, RoW down 38.6% .NA +5.6%; RoW -46.5% (MEATER drag) .Consistent pattern.
Legal/non-routineQ4: Non-routine legal costs in non-GAAP adjustments .Non-routine legal expenses included again in non-GAAP reconciliation .Ongoing but lower than prior periods.

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter results were largely inline with our expectations… grills business grew 13%… launch of our new Woodridge series… Offsetting the growth in grills was pressure on our accessories revenues due to continued challenges at MEATER.” — Jeremy Andrus, CEO .
  • “We are fully committed to shifting production away from China and are planning to materially reduce the portion of our production that occurs in China by 2026… [and] have implemented strategic pricing increases.” — Jeremy Andrus .
  • “Given the tremendous economic uncertainty related to trade policy… we are withdrawing our forward guidance for fiscal year 2025… [and] planning inventory conservatively and have significantly reduced purchase orders.” — Dominic Blosil, CFO .
  • “Sell-through of Grills remains healthy into the second quarter… we increased the number of [Costco] road shows by nearly 50%.” — Jeremy Andrus .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pricing strategy and elasticity: Broad-based price increases set SKU-by-SKU based on elasticity, features, competitive position; prices reset over weeks; expect competitors to raise prices too .
  • MEATER strategy: Shift mix from online/DTC to wholesale channels; centralize operations; cost reductions to stabilize profitability before reaccelerating growth .
  • Retail inventory posture: No reluctance to take inventory; interim shift from direct import to domestic fulfillment to manage tariff assessment mechanics .
  • Tariff stacking clarity: China grills ~45% (20% IEEPA + 25% Section 232); Vietnam grills ~25% (reciprocal not stacked over 232); accessories vary (many at 10%; some China-sourced items can be much higher), prompting sourcing moves .
  • Marketing mix and ROI: Less top-of-funnel, more in-store activation and marketplace programs (some recognized in COGS); focus on high-return initiatives .
  • Inventory/POs: Using pre-tariff inventory near term; pulling back POs until better demand signals through peak season; iterative weekly demand planning with retail partners .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $143.3M vs $140.6M*; Primary EPS $0.05 vs $0.041*; S&P EBITDA “actual” $17.7M* vs $22.4M* consensus, while company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $22.5M (definitions differ) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Forward quarters (snapshot): S&P shows consensus Revenue of $135.4M* (Q4’25) and $134.0M* (Q1’26), and Primary EPS of $0.0075* (Q4’25) and $0.044* (Q1’26). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Implications: Estimates may need to incorporate higher price realization, MEATER headwinds, and gross margin pressure from mix/promotions and tariffs, with company mitigation (pricing, supply-chain savings, SG&A controls) offsetting a “majority” of tariff impact per management .

Financial Detail Tables

Q1 2025 Operational Drivers (YoY components of gross margin)

DriverImpact (bps)
Grill mix (unfavorable)-180
Marketplace/promotional funding (higher)-140
MEATER (unfavorable)-30
Warranty expense (lower)+110
Supply chain improvements+50
Other+20

Cash Flow (3 months ended 3/31)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($M)$(12.6) $(20.8)
Capex ($M)$(5.7) $(1.8)
Net Cash from Financing ($M)$12.0 $19.8
End Cash ($M)$23.6 $12.0

Product/Launches (Q1 2025 context)

Launch/ProgramDetail
Woodridge pellet grillsJanuary launch; outperformed expectations; 4.8-star average across DTC/retail .
Costco roadshows~50% more events YoY in Q1; brand awareness driver .
Flatrock 2 Zone griddleAnnounced April 3 at $699, compact two-zone design .

Key Quotes

  • “We believe we can offset a majority of the tariff impact via our mitigation initiatives with the largest unknown factor being consumer demand and behavior going forward.” — CEO .
  • “Our inventory on hand is sufficient to serve near-term demand… we have ample liquidity… currently undrawn on our $125 million revolver.” — CFO .
  • “Woodridge… brings significant innovation at a more attainable price point… demand outperforming our expectations.” — CEO .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue and Adjusted EPS outperformed S&P Global consensus; gross margin compressed on mix/promotions but remained >41%, supported by supply-chain and warranty tailwinds .
  • Guidance withdrawal elevates uncertainty; near-term stock narrative hinges on tariff clarity, pricing pass-through, and proof that mitigation offsets most cost headwinds .
  • Grills momentum (Woodridge) and strong field execution (sell-through, demos, Costco roadshows) provide a buffer against macro softness .
  • MEATER remains a drag; management is pivoting to wholesale channels and cutting costs—watch for stabilization signals over coming quarters .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity appear adequate (liquidity ~$168M; undrawn revolver), and inventory is being tightly managed with PO reductions to preserve cash .
  • Estimate models should reflect higher pricing, continued NA strength vs RoW weakness, and potential EBITDA definition mismatches vs company-reported Adjusted EBITDA .
  • Catalysts: tariff policy developments, consumer elasticity to pricing, summer sell-through data, and potential guidance reinstatement in 2H.

Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus/actuals and may reflect differing metric definitions. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*